PR-Bridge

Scholars will examine the 2008 presidential campaign for a long, long time. The money spent by each candidate guarantees this, particularly the tremendous advantage Barack Obama has wield in the battle with John McCain.

While most of the major polls — like Yahoo! with its scoreboard estimate of the popular vote and electoral college – have Obama winning easily (right now, Yahoo! declares Obama winning 51.6 percent to 44.3 percent), what no poll or polling group can account for is the deep-rooted racism of the American public. On the surface, the equation seems straightforward. If Obama wins by less than 6 percent (or, if McCain somehow emerges victorious), then I posit that many voters, in their heart of hearts, stood in the voting booth and simply could not vote for a black man for president.

The potential role of race in the election seems more compelling when one examines the latest information about the candidate voters think will do more for the economy and to change Washington. Despite McCain’s self-avowed “maverick” status,  voters claim Obama leads on these issues. Obviously, some undecided voters could walk into the booth and go with McCain based on his experience and foreign policy viewpoints. That may account for the close election, if it gets close. Race, however, is a more compelling explanation.

Throughout the election season, information about the potential racism and its consequences popped up irregularly. On NPR, for example, correspondents went into battleground states and spoke to party stalwarts. In West Virginia, some Democrats interviewed flatly said that they were uncomfortable with Obama because of race. A poll in that state identified that 25 percent of voters would not vote for Obama due to race. Other NPR interviews revealed voters concerned about “the Muslim issue” and Obama, insinuating that Obama was a Muslim, not Christian.

An article in the Dallas Morning News, “In Areas of Pennsylvania, Issue of Obama’s Race Remains,” discusses the potential fallout in areas of that key state that have traditionally voted Democrat. “People won’t make up their mind or say they are going to vote for Obama because they are afraid that they could vote for a black man,” said Phil McGrogan, a retired salesman who said he’d vote for Mr. Obama. “In some of the yards where I see signs that say ‘Another Democrat for McCain,’ I know the people and I know they are racists. I even told my wife, you can almost pick out the rednecks.” McGrogan had the guts to tell the reporter what many others either think or see in their own neighborhoods.

The reason a Dallas paper would venture into southwestern PA is due to the fallout generated by the area’s Democratic Rep. John Murtha, who referred to the western part of his state as “a racist area.” He later rescinded his comments, but for many the notion stuck.

Even the now famous Joe the Plumber resorted to coded language, criticizing Obama for tap dancing through an answer, ”Almost as good as Sammy Davis Jr.” An Associated Press article lists several overtly racist ads run by pro-Republican groups, ranging from “a California group, which distributed anti-Obama literature with stereotypical black America images of a watermelon, ribs and a bucket of fried chicken…[and] A Virginia GOP official said Obama would hire rapper Ludacris to paint the White House black.”

The race challenge is one that haunts surveys — people often either lie or tell the person conducting the survey what they think they want to hear. What potential voter is going to admit to a pollster that they are racist? To get at reality, many polls have gone to computer-generated systems that eliminate human interaction.

Polls are attempting to get at the center of the race issue, but not until tomorrow’s election will the real consequences be revealed. A recent AP-Yahoo News poll, for example, determined that 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks. Race may determine the outcome of the 2008 election, but whether it does or not, the results should show how far the nation still must travel to overcome its racial divide.